So, gold popped above USD1200 today, the first time in quite awhile. The last time it did so, it was seesawing with a falling dollar, sliding to 77 at that time.
Today, amazingly, dollar is holding strong, rising in the 84 range, and gold is rising anyway.
Basically, we are witnessing the drop of all currencies together, relative to gold, in other words, worldwide inflation.
The USD/FRN is rising relative to the crashing Euro, but it is still falling in an absolute sense.
Inflation is all around us. On the radio just two days ago I heard how airfare is over 30% higher than a year ago. Some for the price of gold, and the price of gas. If obvious measures like gold, gas, and airfare are up over 30-40% in one year, how do they expect us to believe inflation is flat. And the price of food such as bread lately? Good lord.
As I have endeavored to show in articles on this blog, economics is really common sense, and you should never be afraid to believe your own eyes.
Showing posts with label Gold. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Gold. Show all posts
Friday, May 7, 2010
Wednesday, November 4, 2009
Gold a Rising Force as Money
Gold is making a strong comeback as the international unit of account, as the world moves away from fiat paper dollars. It is actually quite amazing to watch monetary theory unfold before one's very eyes.
The fact is, fiat currencies are just fine for national/enclosed economies. It is only when trading between economies that a stable unit of account is a necessity. Gold, because of its relatively stable and constant supply, is the perfect solution to the need for this international unit of account.
Gold is undergoing a rapid international monetization to fullfill this role now, as the international community has decided to abandon the US dollar as reserve currency. As usual, the general public is generally clueless, because an Authority as not made an Official Announcement. But the game is on, albeit a secret game, played under the table, so as not to spook the markets in dollars and gold. Even played without Offical Announcement, the game is becoming obvious to the casual observer, with more open ackowledgements of central banks buying up gold and the price climbing a steep hill upward.
Obviously, central banks would prefer to purchase on dips, but there are no dips. The price is jump step climbing upward, relentlessly responding to demand, the demand which is trying to maintain itself as secretly and quietly as possible. There is an almost literal mad rush internationally right now to take physical possession of all gold reserves.
The abandonment of the dollar as the reserve currency is already starting to cause inflation in the US. That, along with continued record deficit spending, is going to ramp up inflation depite continued economic collapse and high unemployment. In other words, the worst of both worlds.
from http://news.goldseek.com/BullionVault/1257258074.php
Paul Mercier, a senior central banker [from the European Central Bank (ECB)] said official holders overall will no longer be net sellers of gold," said UBS analyst John Reade today, summing up the London Bullion Market Association's 2009 conference here in Edinburgh. "Given the Indian announcement overnight, that forecast's already true for this year. Central banks are now net buyers."
ECB markets manager, Mercier yesterday told the LBMA conference that although diminished from its early 20th-century role in the world's monetary system, gold continues to be an important asset in global reserves.
In private investor and institutional portfolios, "We've seen a move away from unallocated gold to allocated gold," said Neil Clift of J.P.Morgan Chase at a debate held at the LBMA's conference this morning. Commenting on the shift from unsecured credit accounts to physical positions held in secure custody, "[It means] the client owns their gold, there's no first lien over it, and they can come and take it away when they want."
"There will be a threat to the London market from overseas storage if we see the ETFs continue to grow, as we expect they will," Clift said, noting that Asian and Middle Eastern investors increasingly want exchange-traded products that vault in or near their home state – and are also priced in their domestic currency, rather than US Dollars.
Commenting on the much-discussed issue of bringing the different bodies representing London's bullion market together into some more formal organization – and which is likely to see "cleared forwards" for London gold offered by a formal exchange very shortly – "I think it's fantastic for the bullion market that the [Chicago Mercantile Exchange] is now accepting gold as collateral on other positions," said Key."We can expect to see other exchanges accepting gold as collateral over the next year, alongside dollars, currency, T-bonds."
The fact is, fiat currencies are just fine for national/enclosed economies. It is only when trading between economies that a stable unit of account is a necessity. Gold, because of its relatively stable and constant supply, is the perfect solution to the need for this international unit of account.
Gold is undergoing a rapid international monetization to fullfill this role now, as the international community has decided to abandon the US dollar as reserve currency. As usual, the general public is generally clueless, because an Authority as not made an Official Announcement. But the game is on, albeit a secret game, played under the table, so as not to spook the markets in dollars and gold. Even played without Offical Announcement, the game is becoming obvious to the casual observer, with more open ackowledgements of central banks buying up gold and the price climbing a steep hill upward.
Obviously, central banks would prefer to purchase on dips, but there are no dips. The price is jump step climbing upward, relentlessly responding to demand, the demand which is trying to maintain itself as secretly and quietly as possible. There is an almost literal mad rush internationally right now to take physical possession of all gold reserves.
The abandonment of the dollar as the reserve currency is already starting to cause inflation in the US. That, along with continued record deficit spending, is going to ramp up inflation depite continued economic collapse and high unemployment. In other words, the worst of both worlds.
from http://news.goldseek.com/BullionVault/1257258074.php
Paul Mercier, a senior central banker [from the European Central Bank (ECB)] said official holders overall will no longer be net sellers of gold," said UBS analyst John Reade today, summing up the London Bullion Market Association's 2009 conference here in Edinburgh. "Given the Indian announcement overnight, that forecast's already true for this year. Central banks are now net buyers."
ECB markets manager, Mercier yesterday told the LBMA conference that although diminished from its early 20th-century role in the world's monetary system, gold continues to be an important asset in global reserves.
In private investor and institutional portfolios, "We've seen a move away from unallocated gold to allocated gold," said Neil Clift of J.P.Morgan Chase at a debate held at the LBMA's conference this morning. Commenting on the shift from unsecured credit accounts to physical positions held in secure custody, "[It means] the client owns their gold, there's no first lien over it, and they can come and take it away when they want."
"There will be a threat to the London market from overseas storage if we see the ETFs continue to grow, as we expect they will," Clift said, noting that Asian and Middle Eastern investors increasingly want exchange-traded products that vault in or near their home state – and are also priced in their domestic currency, rather than US Dollars.
Commenting on the much-discussed issue of bringing the different bodies representing London's bullion market together into some more formal organization – and which is likely to see "cleared forwards" for London gold offered by a formal exchange very shortly – "I think it's fantastic for the bullion market that the [Chicago Mercantile Exchange] is now accepting gold as collateral on other positions," said Key."We can expect to see other exchanges accepting gold as collateral over the next year, alongside dollars, currency, T-bonds."
Friday, September 11, 2009
Global Trade, Debt, and Stimulus: a short Explanation
The Chinese run a large trade surplus with the US. This leads them to have a huge stockpile of dollars. This allows them to peg their own currency to whatever dollar value they want. Since they do all their foreign trade in dollars, there is simply no international market for their domestic currency, so international traders are simply shut out. (For other countries who do trade their currencies on the international market, lacking a supply of dollars means that currency traders could make runs on their currency, and the buying and selling of it would be out of their control.)
The surplus of extra dollars leaves the Chinese with a question of what to do with those dollars. In the past, they were content to invest in US debt securities, in effect, expanding their supply of dollars. However, stockpiling dollars is good for the Chinese in absolute terms, because dollars are the international trade currency. Thus, with extra dollars, they can buy anything else in the world.
When the international collapse in trade happened last year, many analysts thought China would be hit hard, because they are so export-dependent. However, they responded to the collapse in export trade with an almost unbelievably large dose of domestic spending. This is where their dollar stockpile came in, because they were able to stimulate their own economy by spending all the dollars they had stockpiled buying raw materials.
Oil, copper, rare elements, whatever they wanted, they were able to buy, using their dollars. They have also been investing heavily in gold, although not for use in industrial stimulus, but as a hedge against dollar collapse.
They could then pay their citizens in their own currency to do the work. Printing out their own money for domestic projects was not necessarily inflationary. For one, it was partially just holding the line, fighting deflation and unemployment from the collapse in international trade. For another, it can’t cause a currency devaluation, because their currency is not traded internationally.
The same process, printing out your own money, does not work for making international payments. Foreigners will see that you are diluting your money, and the exchange rate will fall. This defeats the purpose of printing more money in the first place, since it now costs more for the same trade.
For this reason, many times throughout world history, two types of money are used, one for domestic trade, one for international trade. For example, the US went off the gold standard for domestic dollars in 1933, but didn’t go off the gold standard for international dollars until 1971. It is also the reason why the world is clamoring for a new international trade currency now. International trade needs an absolute standard of measure, to prevent countries from screwing the system by printing more of their own currency (such as they see the US doing now).
So, with their stimulus money, the Chinese have been stockpiling raw materials and using them to put their people to work on infrastructure projects. This is true capital investment, and increases their wealth-creating capacity for the future, as well as putting people to work today.
Our stimulus money is not based on a trade surplus, but is simply based on diluting the dollar through deficit spending and monetization of government debt. Nor is our stimulus money providing the basis for future wealth creation or even repairing old infrastructure. Our stimulus money is simply covering budget shortfalls and continuing welfare payments. Thus, we will be in a worse position when the stimulus ends, having the same economic condition, but then with a higher debt load.
Looking forward, the US economy is in between a rock and a hard place. Keeping the dollar as the international reserve currency means that the US will continue to have its industrial base undercut by cheaper foreign competition and be the target for mass immigration because of the overvalued dollar. When the change finally happens, and the dollar is removed as international reserve, the US faces a massive inflation, from the return of dollars to domestic use and currency devaluation. The longer we wait, the worse the economic collapse will be when it does happen, since we will have to rebuild our industrial economy from scratch.
The only solution to that guaranteed eventuality is to take aggressive proactive steps, sooner rather than later. For example, the US should take decisive steps to safeguard its industrial base now, while the dollar is strong, rather than later, after currency collapse. The US should also cease all inflationary policies (such as deficit spending and monetization of debt), which are literally driving the world away from the dollar reserve standard. An even more radical approach would involve repudiation of the national debt, leaving the rest of the world holding the bag of worthless paper, and reinvesting in America’s industrial powerbase through protection from imports and outsourcing/off shoring.
In short, Americans should start thinking of themselves a people, rather than just as expendable units of profit manipulation in an international economy.
The surplus of extra dollars leaves the Chinese with a question of what to do with those dollars. In the past, they were content to invest in US debt securities, in effect, expanding their supply of dollars. However, stockpiling dollars is good for the Chinese in absolute terms, because dollars are the international trade currency. Thus, with extra dollars, they can buy anything else in the world.
When the international collapse in trade happened last year, many analysts thought China would be hit hard, because they are so export-dependent. However, they responded to the collapse in export trade with an almost unbelievably large dose of domestic spending. This is where their dollar stockpile came in, because they were able to stimulate their own economy by spending all the dollars they had stockpiled buying raw materials.
Oil, copper, rare elements, whatever they wanted, they were able to buy, using their dollars. They have also been investing heavily in gold, although not for use in industrial stimulus, but as a hedge against dollar collapse.
They could then pay their citizens in their own currency to do the work. Printing out their own money for domestic projects was not necessarily inflationary. For one, it was partially just holding the line, fighting deflation and unemployment from the collapse in international trade. For another, it can’t cause a currency devaluation, because their currency is not traded internationally.
The same process, printing out your own money, does not work for making international payments. Foreigners will see that you are diluting your money, and the exchange rate will fall. This defeats the purpose of printing more money in the first place, since it now costs more for the same trade.
For this reason, many times throughout world history, two types of money are used, one for domestic trade, one for international trade. For example, the US went off the gold standard for domestic dollars in 1933, but didn’t go off the gold standard for international dollars until 1971. It is also the reason why the world is clamoring for a new international trade currency now. International trade needs an absolute standard of measure, to prevent countries from screwing the system by printing more of their own currency (such as they see the US doing now).
So, with their stimulus money, the Chinese have been stockpiling raw materials and using them to put their people to work on infrastructure projects. This is true capital investment, and increases their wealth-creating capacity for the future, as well as putting people to work today.
Our stimulus money is not based on a trade surplus, but is simply based on diluting the dollar through deficit spending and monetization of government debt. Nor is our stimulus money providing the basis for future wealth creation or even repairing old infrastructure. Our stimulus money is simply covering budget shortfalls and continuing welfare payments. Thus, we will be in a worse position when the stimulus ends, having the same economic condition, but then with a higher debt load.
Looking forward, the US economy is in between a rock and a hard place. Keeping the dollar as the international reserve currency means that the US will continue to have its industrial base undercut by cheaper foreign competition and be the target for mass immigration because of the overvalued dollar. When the change finally happens, and the dollar is removed as international reserve, the US faces a massive inflation, from the return of dollars to domestic use and currency devaluation. The longer we wait, the worse the economic collapse will be when it does happen, since we will have to rebuild our industrial economy from scratch.
The only solution to that guaranteed eventuality is to take aggressive proactive steps, sooner rather than later. For example, the US should take decisive steps to safeguard its industrial base now, while the dollar is strong, rather than later, after currency collapse. The US should also cease all inflationary policies (such as deficit spending and monetization of debt), which are literally driving the world away from the dollar reserve standard. An even more radical approach would involve repudiation of the national debt, leaving the rest of the world holding the bag of worthless paper, and reinvesting in America’s industrial powerbase through protection from imports and outsourcing/off shoring.
In short, Americans should start thinking of themselves a people, rather than just as expendable units of profit manipulation in an international economy.
Thursday, September 3, 2009
China Establishes their own Gold Market, Preparing to Monetize Gold
Clearly, gold is returning to its role as money, the ultimate store of value and settlement medium. The Chinese are deftly, and quietly, preparing to exit the dollar-denominated international system by establishing their own regional gold market. There is even overt mention of monetizing the gold, which, in plain language, means a return to the gold standard as an objective unit of international settlement.
All the talk of the slow, almost impossible process of displacing the US dollar as international reserve currency would be rendered moot instantaneously if China backed a currency with gold. The dollar would be obliterated overnight if the Chinese introduced a trade currency pegged to gold.
Is it a coincidence that gold has spiked in the last 36 hours (hovering just below $1000/oz.)???
HONG KONG (MarketWatch) -- Hong Kong is pulling all its physical gold holdings from depositories in London, transferring them to a high-security depository newly built at the city's airport, in a move that won praise from local traders Thursday. The facility, industry professionals said, would support Hong Kong's emergence as a Swiss-style trading hub for bullion and would lessen London's status as a key settlement-and-storage center.
"Having a central government-sponsored vault would create a situation where you could conceivably look at Hong Kong as being a hub, where metal could be traded for the region," said Sunil Kashyap, managing director at Scotia Capital in Hong Kong, adding that the facility was the first with official government backing in the region.
The Hong Kong Monetary Authority, which functions as the territory's unofficial central bank, will transfer its gold reserves stored in other vaults to the depository later this year, the Hong Kong government said in an earlier statement. The 3,660-square-foot depository, located at the city's main Chek Lap Kok Airport, will serve as a "storage facility for local and overseas government institutions," according to the government statement.
Traders said the new depository facility could also foster new financial products, such as exchange-traded funds based on precious metals.
Martin Hennecke, a financial advisor with the Hong Kong-based Tyche Group Ltd., said that could be appealing to regional central banks unnerved after watching the global financial system teeter on verge of implosion last year.
"Central banks are increasingly aware of the importance of having gold reserves at time of financial crisis and having it easily available at their own disposal," he said.
Meanwhile, local newspaper reports said the Hong Kong Mercantile Exchange had signed an agreement to use the depository for its physical settlement and storage needs.
Marketing efforts will be launched to convince Asian central banks to transfer their gold reserves to the Hong Kong facility, according to reports citing Raymond Lai, finance director with the Hong Kong Airport Authority. Efforts will also be made to reach out to commodity exchanges, banks, precious-metals refiners and ETF providers, the reports said. Management firm Value Partners planned to launch an ETF gold fund that will use Hong Kong instead of London as a repository for the gold backing the fund, local reports said Thursday.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/hong-kong-recalls-gold-reserves-from-london-2009-09-03
All the talk of the slow, almost impossible process of displacing the US dollar as international reserve currency would be rendered moot instantaneously if China backed a currency with gold. The dollar would be obliterated overnight if the Chinese introduced a trade currency pegged to gold.
Is it a coincidence that gold has spiked in the last 36 hours (hovering just below $1000/oz.)???
HONG KONG (MarketWatch) -- Hong Kong is pulling all its physical gold holdings from depositories in London, transferring them to a high-security depository newly built at the city's airport, in a move that won praise from local traders Thursday. The facility, industry professionals said, would support Hong Kong's emergence as a Swiss-style trading hub for bullion and would lessen London's status as a key settlement-and-storage center.
"Having a central government-sponsored vault would create a situation where you could conceivably look at Hong Kong as being a hub, where metal could be traded for the region," said Sunil Kashyap, managing director at Scotia Capital in Hong Kong, adding that the facility was the first with official government backing in the region.
The Hong Kong Monetary Authority, which functions as the territory's unofficial central bank, will transfer its gold reserves stored in other vaults to the depository later this year, the Hong Kong government said in an earlier statement. The 3,660-square-foot depository, located at the city's main Chek Lap Kok Airport, will serve as a "storage facility for local and overseas government institutions," according to the government statement.
Traders said the new depository facility could also foster new financial products, such as exchange-traded funds based on precious metals.
Martin Hennecke, a financial advisor with the Hong Kong-based Tyche Group Ltd., said that could be appealing to regional central banks unnerved after watching the global financial system teeter on verge of implosion last year.
"Central banks are increasingly aware of the importance of having gold reserves at time of financial crisis and having it easily available at their own disposal," he said.
Meanwhile, local newspaper reports said the Hong Kong Mercantile Exchange had signed an agreement to use the depository for its physical settlement and storage needs.
Marketing efforts will be launched to convince Asian central banks to transfer their gold reserves to the Hong Kong facility, according to reports citing Raymond Lai, finance director with the Hong Kong Airport Authority. Efforts will also be made to reach out to commodity exchanges, banks, precious-metals refiners and ETF providers, the reports said. Management firm Value Partners planned to launch an ETF gold fund that will use Hong Kong instead of London as a repository for the gold backing the fund, local reports said Thursday.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/hong-kong-recalls-gold-reserves-from-london-2009-09-03
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