Thursday, May 17, 2012

Real-time economic indicators screaming deflation

The average person gets their economic news from the backwards-looking statistical reports.  However, there are a number of real-time economic indicators that can tell you what is going on right now, before the "official reports" come out telling you what happened two months ago.  

Watching for price trends is the best we have available for "real time" economic reports. When clear trends develop, not just daily up and down bounces, but clear trendlines, they are telling us something.  When all of the clear price trends are going in the same direction, we are getting an obvious economic indicator.

Unfortunately, all of the clear price trends right now are screaming contraction, downturn, and deflation. 

Milk - deflating  (http://www.cnbc.com/id/47187994)
Gas - deflating
Gold - deflating
Stocks - deflating


Chinese real estate - deflating (http://www.economonitor.com/blog/2012/05/china-real-estate-unravels/).  This one is especially troubling, because the price of land is usually the bedrock of the banking system.  In American history, land-value deflation after a speculation boom always leads to economic depression. 

European economies - contraction
Chinese economy - contraction

In short, world wide economic downturn.   Add to it the continued budget woes of places like California, which will have to slash its budget, thereby damaging their economy.

Is this the calm before the storm?   It appears that Big Money thinks so.  They are liquidating to cash, preparing for the coming buying opportunities when the markets fall.


2 comments:

MR.Thoughtful said...

I love your information and will follow, and spread the word.

Justin said...

Thanks, Mr. T, I appreciate it.